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Tuesday
Feb052019

SSR Mining Inc Continues To Mature 

 Preamble

A few years ago, the formally named Silver Standard changed their name to SSR Mining (NASDAQ: SSRM), to better reflect their involvement in both silver and gold mining activities. The previous name suggested that it was predominantly a silver producer, however since acquiring the Marigold gold mine in Nevada the newly named SSR Mining Inc is now largely a gold producer.

On 4th July 2017 we posted an article entitled; “Silver Standard Is Now In The Bargain Basement: Buy” and since then the stock has had a torrid time along with most of the precious metals mining operators but of late has showed considerable strength. Fast forward nineteen months and the picture has improved dramatically for SSRM as it could have been acquired for $9.24 back then and today the cost would be in the order of $13.88, registering a gain of 50.2%

At the time of acquisition gold was trading at around $1210/Oz and today it stands at $1313/Oz. However not all in this sector have been so fortunate as the Gold Bugs Index, the HUI clearly demonstrates. The HUI stood at 180 back in July 2017 and today it stands at 168 registering a loss of 6.7% over the same period that SSR Mining Inc made very good progress.

A Quick Look At The Chart Of SSR Mining

The chart below shows the acceleration of the stock price over the last six months and the steepness of the ascent suggests that it may have ran too far too fast. The technical indicators such as the RSI which stands at 74.78 is firmly in the oversold zone, likewise with the MACD and the STO both of which look set to rollover and head south.


Financials

In July 2017 we wrote:

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Thursday
Jan312019

Gold And The mining Stocks Come Alive 

Preamble

After 6 torrid years in the precious metals sector of the market gold and the associated mining stocks have given us a glimmer of hope.

There are two main drivers behind this, the first is that the markets in general are retreating and investors are looking for alternative market sectors for their investment funds. The S&P500 hit the dizzy heights of 2900 before correcting to 2350 and then bounced to around 2681. Having had a ten-year run a correction is to be expected and we are of the opinion that there is more to come on the downside, with the precious metals sector being the beneficiary.

The second driver is

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Wednesday
Jan232019

Fresnillo’s 2018 silver output hit record high, to be lower this year


Shares in Mexico-focused precious metals miner Fresnillo (LON:FRES) took a hit Wednesday after the company said it expected a decline in silver output in 2019.

The company, which is the world's largest primary silver producer and Mexico's No.2 gold miner, posted record silver production, and strong gold output in 2018, despite it being a “challenging year” for the company.

Delivering production figures for the three months and full year ended in December, the miner said annual silver production was 61.8 million ounces, up 5.3% on 2017, thanks mainly to the first full year of operations at San Julián.

Fresnillo said it was taking action to address lower than expected ore grades at its Fresnillo and Saucito mines, which persisted in the final quarter of 2018.

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Friday
Jan182019

Is The Future For Silver Shiny Or Not?

Background

The first decade of the precious metals bull market was in hindsight a wonderful opportunity to generate profits by sticking with the trend. We were able to acquire both gold and silver at what now look like very cheap prices. The producers also gave us the opportunity to generate good profits with our funds invested for relatively short time periods. However, all good things come to an end and this bull market concluded in 2011 when gold peaked at $1900/oz.

Silver suffered the very same fate even though the number of applications for it increased with new technological advances. Silver prices peaked at $50.00/Oz and today silver trades at sub $16.00/Oz, registering a fall of $34.00/Oz or a loss of 68%. The ishares Silver Trust (SLV) mirrored the fall from a peak of

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Thursday
Jan102019

The Precious Metals Sector To Shine As The Fed Blinks

Preamble

The Federal Reserve stuck to its guns last year and implemented rate hikes as planned. For the year ahead, they plan to hike rates two more times which would be supportive of the US Dollar, if this was a certainty. However, as always there is some doubt that they will do this, and the possibility exists that the Fed will not increase rates at all in 2019. The Head of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell, recently told the American Economic Association that the Fed is not locked into a number of rate hikes and will be ‘listening carefully’ to the financial markets. His comments helped to steady the markets and aided a short-term bounce which may continue for awhile longer. However, the US Dollar suffered and given its inverse relationship with gold helped maintain gold prices.

Chart of the US Dollar

As we can see from the chart below the dollar has encountered strong resistance at the ‘97’ level and has recently fallen back on the Feds perceived slackening of monetary policy.

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Thursday
Dec202018

The Feds Rate Hike Weakens Gold and Boosts the Dollar

Preamble

At the FOMC meeting today the Federal Reserve raised rates more or less as expected. The result was a boost for the US Dollar and a fall in precious metals prices. Once again, we have a clear demonstration that the inverse relationship between the US dollar and gold is alive and well.

The second takeaway that we have is the rhetoric regarding the Feds future plans on monetary policy. As we see it the Feds stance has softened as the number of rate hikes planned for 2019 was standing at three and this has been reduced to two.

Reading the text from the FOMC meeting the rate hike can be summed up as follows:

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.

If we assume that the aggressive tightening of monetary policy is now

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Monday
Dec032018

Central Bankers, The U.S. Dollar and The Inverse Relationship with Gold

Preamble

There are a myriad of factors that need to be taken into consideration before one can determine the direction of a particular market sector and therefore place a trade. Supply and demand is a popular one when considering the fundamental analysis as are the moving averages when considering technical analysis. Rightly or wrongly we consider the inverse relationship between the US Dollar and Gold to be very important and along with the words and actions of the central bankers.

On Wednesday the 28th November 2018 we saw action in the markets that clearly displayed the relationship of these three factors.

Charts of the USD and Gold

Taking a quick look at the chart of the US Dollar we can see it fell sharply on Jay Powell’s words.

 

The Gold chart shows the inverse reaction to the dollar as it bounced on the dollars demise.

 More.........

 

Friday
Oct122018

The S&P500 Fall and Its Effect On The Precious Metals Sector

Preamble

Market sectors are interlinked and what boosts one particular sector can put downward pressure on other sectors. We have seen the recent action by the Fed in raising rates and the boosting effect that they have on the US Dollar. A strengthening dollar has an inverse effect on gold and silver and the associated precious metals producers and so gold bugs have suffered accordingly.

The action in the financial markets of the last few days has seen a correction from historic highs as investors decided to take profits and place their investment funds elsewhere. During Thursday’s trading session on the NYSE the DOW Jones was down 545 points, following an earlier fall of some 800 points. The S&P500 also fell in a similar fashion and both indices closed below their respective 200day moving averages.

It should also be noted that the dollar also lost ground despite the recent rate hikes and the stated intention of the Fed to continue with the policy of rate ‘normalization.’ Both of these factors helped gold and silver prices to recover and this in turn saw investors taking a tad more interest in the associated mining companies. The biggest gold producer on the planet, Barrick Gold Corp (ABX) gained 9.39% in Thursdays trading session. In stock market parlance it is unusual for an elephant to sprint but on this occasion, Barrick proved to be the exception to the rule.

The Chart of the S&P500

 

 

The above chart of the SPX clearly depicts.......

MORE....

 

Last week was a really interesting week for gold - was it a minor jump or the start of a new rally?

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Monday
Sep242018

James Turk – A Major Gold & Silver Short Squeeze May Unfold On This Stunning Announcement

With the Dow tumbling as the price of crude oil breaks above $72, today James Turk told King World News that a major short squeeze in the gold and silver markets may unfold on this stunning announcement.

Summer Doldrums Are Over

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Saturday
Sep082018

Gold Mining Stocks Still in Weak Hands (Part Three)

Preamble

On days like this I feel like a script writer for a soap opera:

“Previously on Desperate Investors………..” you get my drift as we recently wrote:

This is a capitulation of sorts, but it may not be final at this point. The selling of this sector creates more selling as the stops are hit on the way down. Investors lose heart and decide to end the pain and make no mistake this is painful

There is blood in the streets but I’m not sure that this particular bloodbath is over just yet. 

When we penned part two of this post the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) stood at 146 having suffered a rapid fall from the 180 level. This was a capitulation of some form but by no means a final one.

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