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Silver Prices are struggling to say above the $16.00/Oz level

As the chart below shows that it is a struggle to stay above sixteen bucks which it needs to do and consolidate those gains before moving to higher ground.

Take good care these are treacherous times.

 gold is doing

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The Gold Bugs Index The HUI To Rock As Gold Rallies


The precious metal market has experienced great difficulty for the last 6 years or so as gold and silver prices were beaten down. However, they are now moving higher largely due to a stock market that is in a corrective mode and a Federal Reserve that is in dovish mode. Investors in the stock market are looking to rotate into new market sectors and the Fed’s rate hike cycle looks to have come to an end removing support from the US Dollar. As the dollar weakens gold prices improve as they have an inverse relationship.

Our expectation is that the precious metals stocks will become more profitable and therefore more attractive to the investment community and could even become the “Darlings” of market as the media begins to feature them more often and without the distaste that they have for them at the moment.

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Gold Prices Taking A Breather Or Something Worse?


I first traded gold back in 1980 and have been active in this sector of the market ever since then. However, as a Gold Bug at heart I am not a Perma-Bull and at different times I have been long or short in this space through via the normal buying and selling methods and also by utilizing the options market to generate profits.

Being a Perma-Bull or Perma-Anything makes no sense to me as the market goes up and comes down. It is all about being positioned on the right side of a market sector, being with it and not against it. If you have to be a bear at times so be it, it is better than losing your shirt.

Preamble on Gold and Silver

As we understand it in 2018 Central Banks bought 651 tonnes of gold and are showing a renewed interest in the precious metals sector, which if true, is very good news for the demand side of this commodity. We have also read a number of articles by some of the big banks who are predicting higher prices for gold going forward. If their research could be relied on and assuming that they didn’t want to see the price go higher in order to unload some of their holdings, then this would also be good news for gold and silver.




Overbought gold to correct in the near term, but long term will go higher




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SSR Mining Inc Continues To Mature 


A few years ago, the formally named Silver Standard changed their name to SSR Mining (NASDAQ: SSRM), to better reflect their involvement in both silver and gold mining activities. The previous name suggested that it was predominantly a silver producer, however since acquiring the Marigold gold mine in Nevada the newly named SSR Mining Inc is now largely a gold producer.

On 4th July 2017 we posted an article entitled; “Silver Standard Is Now In The Bargain Basement: Buy” and since then the stock has had a torrid time along with most of the precious metals mining operators but of late has showed considerable strength. Fast forward nineteen months and the picture has improved dramatically for SSRM as it could have been acquired for $9.24 back then and today the cost would be in the order of $13.88, registering a gain of 50.2%

At the time of acquisition gold was trading at around $1210/Oz and today it stands at $1313/Oz. However not all in this sector have been so fortunate as the Gold Bugs Index, the HUI clearly demonstrates. The HUI stood at 180 back in July 2017 and today it stands at 168 registering a loss of 6.7% over the same period that SSR Mining Inc made very good progress.

A Quick Look At The Chart Of SSR Mining

The chart below shows the acceleration of the stock price over the last six months and the steepness of the ascent suggests that it may have ran too far too fast. The technical indicators such as the RSI which stands at 74.78 is firmly in the oversold zone, likewise with the MACD and the STO both of which look set to rollover and head south.


In July 2017 we wrote:

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Gold And The mining Stocks Come Alive 


After 6 torrid years in the precious metals sector of the market gold and the associated mining stocks have given us a glimmer of hope.

There are two main drivers behind this, the first is that the markets in general are retreating and investors are looking for alternative market sectors for their investment funds. The S&P500 hit the dizzy heights of 2900 before correcting to 2350 and then bounced to around 2681. Having had a ten-year run a correction is to be expected and we are of the opinion that there is more to come on the downside, with the precious metals sector being the beneficiary.

The second driver is

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Fresnillo’s 2018 silver output hit record high, to be lower this year

Shares in Mexico-focused precious metals miner Fresnillo (LON:FRES) took a hit Wednesday after the company said it expected a decline in silver output in 2019.

The company, which is the world's largest primary silver producer and Mexico's No.2 gold miner, posted record silver production, and strong gold output in 2018, despite it being a “challenging year” for the company.

Delivering production figures for the three months and full year ended in December, the miner said annual silver production was 61.8 million ounces, up 5.3% on 2017, thanks mainly to the first full year of operations at San Julián.

Fresnillo said it was taking action to address lower than expected ore grades at its Fresnillo and Saucito mines, which persisted in the final quarter of 2018.

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Is The Future For Silver Shiny Or Not?


The first decade of the precious metals bull market was in hindsight a wonderful opportunity to generate profits by sticking with the trend. We were able to acquire both gold and silver at what now look like very cheap prices. The producers also gave us the opportunity to generate good profits with our funds invested for relatively short time periods. However, all good things come to an end and this bull market concluded in 2011 when gold peaked at $1900/oz.

Silver suffered the very same fate even though the number of applications for it increased with new technological advances. Silver prices peaked at $50.00/Oz and today silver trades at sub $16.00/Oz, registering a fall of $34.00/Oz or a loss of 68%. The ishares Silver Trust (SLV) mirrored the fall from a peak of

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The Precious Metals Sector To Shine As The Fed Blinks


The Federal Reserve stuck to its guns last year and implemented rate hikes as planned. For the year ahead, they plan to hike rates two more times which would be supportive of the US Dollar, if this was a certainty. However, as always there is some doubt that they will do this, and the possibility exists that the Fed will not increase rates at all in 2019. The Head of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell, recently told the American Economic Association that the Fed is not locked into a number of rate hikes and will be ‘listening carefully’ to the financial markets. His comments helped to steady the markets and aided a short-term bounce which may continue for awhile longer. However, the US Dollar suffered and given its inverse relationship with gold helped maintain gold prices.

Chart of the US Dollar

As we can see from the chart below the dollar has encountered strong resistance at the ‘97’ level and has recently fallen back on the Feds perceived slackening of monetary policy.

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The Feds Rate Hike Weakens Gold and Boosts the Dollar


At the FOMC meeting today the Federal Reserve raised rates more or less as expected. The result was a boost for the US Dollar and a fall in precious metals prices. Once again, we have a clear demonstration that the inverse relationship between the US dollar and gold is alive and well.

The second takeaway that we have is the rhetoric regarding the Feds future plans on monetary policy. As we see it the Feds stance has softened as the number of rate hikes planned for 2019 was standing at three and this has been reduced to two.

Reading the text from the FOMC meeting the rate hike can be summed up as follows:

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.

If we assume that the aggressive tightening of monetary policy is now

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Central Bankers, The U.S. Dollar and The Inverse Relationship with Gold


There are a myriad of factors that need to be taken into consideration before one can determine the direction of a particular market sector and therefore place a trade. Supply and demand is a popular one when considering the fundamental analysis as are the moving averages when considering technical analysis. Rightly or wrongly we consider the inverse relationship between the US Dollar and Gold to be very important and along with the words and actions of the central bankers.

On Wednesday the 28th November 2018 we saw action in the markets that clearly displayed the relationship of these three factors.

Charts of the USD and Gold

Taking a quick look at the chart of the US Dollar we can see it fell sharply on Jay Powell’s words.


The Gold chart shows the inverse reaction to the dollar as it bounced on the dollars demise.