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Tuesday
Mar072017

Gold: Driven by Central Bankers and Geo-Political Chaos

Background

This year gold’s fortunes will be influenced by the actions of the Central Bankers and the Geo-Political chaos which is simmering in various parts of the world. We are all aware that there are many factors that influence the precious metals sector; however, today we will only look at these two as I believe they are the dominant factors.

Central Bankers

Janet Yellen’s speech on Friday referred to possible rate hikes being implemented sooner rather than later as economic conditions would appear to have improved. Also note that inflation had popped above 2% for the first time in 2½ years which can be construed as an additional reason for the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates progressively this year

read more....

Monday
Mar062017

Trapped Longs In Miners As Gold Poised For Fed Fuelled Fall

he Fed will hike rates this month and signal further hikes to come. Gold prices have yet to fully digest this reality, and therefore there is a strong case for a major move lower in the yellow metal. A Le Pen victory in France could derail the Fed’s plans for a follow up hike in June, but in the short term the gold market is vulnerable to a sharp move lower. There are a number of trapped speculative longs in the futures and mining stocks and we are approaching a period of seasonal weakness. We target a move to $1050 initially, and see merits in a larger move to $720 should the Fed persist with further hikes.

March Hike A Done Deal

The Fed speakers last week unequivocally signalled a March hike. Yellen’s speech to cap the week off confirmed this, and we therefore expect the Fed to hike at next week’s FOMC meeting. Although we still have an employment print before then, the Fed can look through the weakness of one print given the strength of the rest of the data and their clear preference to raise rates.

The Fed has made it clear

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Thursday
Mar022017

Silver Is Collapsing On Massive Volume

 

At exactly 1130ET (as Europe closed), someone decided to unload over $2 billion notional of silver into the futures pits...

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Thursday
Mar022017

Data-Dependent Yellen Running Out of Reasons to Delay Hike

 

 

U.S. economy near Fed goal of stable prices, full employment


Dudley signals ‘compelling’ case, Brainard tilts hawkish

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Tuesday
Feb282017

Six Hundred Million Ounces of Silver to be Consumed in Photovoltaics and Ethylene Oxide Production Through  2020

“... the decrease in silver usage does not

necessarily lead to a decrease in total silver

consumption from the PV industry. The predicted

significant increase in PV capacity... will more

than offset the negative effect of thrifting.”

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Monday
Feb272017

YOU-KNOW-WHO HAS FIGURED OUT THE FED IS BEHIND THE CURVE

I must admit, I had been expecting the Fed to be a little more hawkish over the past couple of months. Given how tone deaf they seemed during previous tightening periods when the US dollar was screaming higher and oil plunging to levels that would have resulted in entire states going bankrupt,

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Wednesday
Feb222017

Gold: Short End US Rates Matter More Than Long End Real Yields

In the years following the GFC, short end yields in the US were contained for an extended period of time as the Fed committed to keeping rates on hold. Given the static nature of the short end, and the shift of monetary policy implications further out the curve through QE programs, long end US rates became the focus. When discussing the drivers of gold prices, long end US real rates (the yield on inflation protected bonds) was the critical factor. However over the past couple of years, the Fed has hiked rates twice, and we now have live meetings with an active short end. This has reduced the impact of long end real rates on gold, and instead shifted the focus to the short end. We now form our view on gold prices overwhelming based on short end rates, as opposed to long end yields. Our bearish view on gold prices is derived from a Fed hike in June.

The Historical Correlation

Looking back at the relationship between gold prices and US real rates

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Tuesday
Feb212017

James Turk Warns Massive Short Squeeze May Send Silver To $20 Within Days!

Silver bull

Today James Turk told King World News that a massive short squeeze in the silver market may occur within days!

An Epic Battle Is Looming
James Turk: 
 “
Get ready for something spectacular,

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Monday
Feb202017

The World Now Faces A Devastating Endgame And How “They All Sold At The Absolute Bottom”

With continued uncertainty around the globe, today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE, historic moves in currencies, spoke with King World News about a devastating endgame the world faces and how they all sold the absolute bottom.

“They All Sold At The Absolute Bottom”

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Tuesday
Feb142017

World's 2nd Largest Stockpile Of Gold Leaves The United States

 

 

About 20 years ago when I was still a cadet at West Point, my economics professor organized a class trip to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The part of the trip that I remember most was touring the Fed’s high security vault, 80 feet below street level beneath the bank’s main office building downtown.

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