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Endeavour Silver Corporation: Up 30.58% in 6 weeks!

Endeavour Silver Chart
On the 5th March we were fortunate to pick up this silver mining stock for $3.97, which is now showing a very healthy paper profit as it closed on Friday at $5.21.

As the chart shows Endeavour has recovered really well form the general stock market wobble that hit most sectors of the market thus presenting us with a terrific buying opportunity. The price of silver is also on the move closing at $14.09 on Friday, up from $12.75 in early March.

For this year, Endeavour is predicting sales of C$36 million to C$39 million, based on 2.6 million ounces of estimated silver production from Guanacevi Mines in Durango, Mexico.

This is a pleasing start to the latest addition to our silver portfolio and we will be looking to accumulate more stock going forward.

Silver Standard Resources Outperforms Silver Prices

Having almost doubled since our purchase in July, we are obviously very pleased with the progress being made by Silver Standard Resources (Stock Symbol is SSRI on NASDAQ and SSO on the TSX).

SSRI Stock Chart

Silver Standard is a fairly large silver mining company, with a market cap now of about $2.25 billion and it controls the worlds largest published in-ground silver resources of any publicly traded silver company.

To some, Silver Standard's size may be viewed as a negative aspect of the company, as some investors may view SSRI as too large and so unable to offer enough leverage to silver prices. Well although it is true that many smaller silver stocks can rise more dramatically than SSRI, volatility works both ways and these small stocks that shoot up, can easy be shot right back down to where they started, or even lower.

SSRI offers quality silver mining projects, a strong management team and a stable stock price that is rising with silver prices and even outperforming them.

Silver compared to SSRI

With silver stocks it is key that they outperform silver prices and that is why we are investing our hard earned money in them. However what is more important is that they do rise with silver prices. This is imperative as you may own a junior silver company with all the potential in the world, but if its stock price is not moving up with silver prices, they are not worth owning. It is fine to own a few speculative explorers on the off chance that they go to the moon, but the majority of our capital invested in silver is in companies that will follow silver and outperform it all the way up. If you don't have some silver stocks that are moving with silver prices, then it is possible that you could watch silver prices go all the way up into the sky, and yet your stocks are not rising due to the fact that the market is not sure that they have any silver reserves/any commercially viable silver/any silver that can be mined in time to take advantage of the current bull market in silver.

Silver Standard

Silver stocks like SSRI are key to a good silver portfolio as you know that they are going to rise with silver prices and that they will perform better than them. By subscribing to the Silver Prices Newsletter you can keep updated on our latest ideas about silver stocks and silver prices, totally free of charge.

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Gold: Will it outperform Silver?

Silver China Coin

Gold and silver are in many ways very similar metals. They have both been used throughout history as money and to store wealth with silver long being considered “poor man's gold”. Gold prices and silver prices tend to move in very similar patterns and so those who are bullish on gold are usually bullish on silver and vice versa. Gold and silver are both precious metals, along with platinum, but there seems to be a closer relationship between gold and silver than there is between the other metals, although they all have similar uses, such as being used in jewellery.

However, with the ever rapidly advancing world of technology, we are beginning to see a separation in the metals. The main change is in the increase of silver usage. Of course silver and gold have long been used in jewellery, but silver has many industrial uses such as photography, dental alloys, bactericides, solder and brazing alloys, electrical contacts, batteries, mirrors, solar panels catalytic converters and much more. The fact is that silver is becoming both a monetary metal and an industrial metal, unlike gold, which is mainly a monetary metal, jewellery aside.

So, How will this additional demand affect silver prices?

Well as far as we can see this extra demand can only have a positive affect on silver prices. More silver being used in industry means less silver on the market, which leads to higher prices being paid for the remaining silver.

When speculating on the current precious metals Bull Market, it is important to look at the history of the metals, and how they have performed in previous bull markets. In the last precious metal Bull Market, both gold and silver performed extremely well and investors would have made handsome profits in either of the metals. Nevertheless, it is important to look at which metal performed the most attractively, in order to gage which metal is to make the most significant gains this time around.

Firstly we look at what gold prices did in the boom that peaked in early 1980. In the final part of the Bull Market, gold prices shot up an incredible $620, that is equivalent to 270%, in little over a year.

Gold making all time high

Gold's gains may have been amazingly dramatic, but they were unable to match the drama that was unfolding in the silver market. Silver outperformed gold by more than double, by a factor of just over 2.2 to be precise, with silver gaining over 600% in the same period that gold gained 270% in.

Will silver do the same this time around?

Silver making all time high

We think it is unlikely that silver will outperform gold to such an extent this time around. This is mainly due to the fact that silver had the backing of the International Metals Investment Company Ltd. I can almost hear you say, “Had the backing of what?” Well this was the company set up by the Hunt brothers and their partners with the single aim of cornering the silver market. They proceeded to try and buy all the silver that they could get their hands on, therefore pushing prices to extreme heights. It is of course possible that there is another Nelson Bunker Hunt out there, plotting with his partners on how to corner the silver market, but none that we are aware of.

However, we do not think that silver will outperform gold to such an extent; we do think it will outperform gold as silver prices are beginning to do so already.

From the start of this current precious metals bull up until 2004, gold was moving steadily higher, whilst silver was following it somewhat reluctantly. But just before we entered 2004, silver started to catch up with gold's gains and the two metals performed on a pretty much equal basis from 2004 to 2006, with silver being the more volatile of the two. However during 2006 we saw silver pull away from gold, steaming ahead more viciously than had been seen before. Since then silver has outperformed gold, as the chart below illustrates.

Silver compared to gold

On the contrary it is possible that silver will go back to under performing gold, as it did in the period before 2004 or that silver will return to moving in approximately the same way as gold does. It is also worth noting that gold also has uses besides being a monetary metal and being used in jewellery. Gold has its uses in the industrial world, although not to the extent that silver has. Gold is used in many electronic components because of gold’s outstanding ability to conduct both thermal and electrical energy. The medical industry also uses a share of the gold market, consuming around 2% of supply each year. This is a fairly small proportion and is considered to be a stable demand although industry in total represent about 11% of gold demand, approximately 400 tonnes each year (average from 2001-2005). Overall however, industry puts a larger demand on silver than it does on gold and that it one of the factors that may push silver higher than gold in this Bull Market.

One thing that is also very clear is that silver prices behave with much more volatility than gold due to the fact that the silver market is considerably thinner that the gold market. This thinness of volume means that when an influx of investment capital enters the silver market, it will send silver prices higher than gold, relatively speaking, because silver is a smaller market.

In conclusion, here at we think that silver will outperform gold, but not on the same level as it did in the last precious metals Bull Market. The driving factors will be additional demand from industry not from an attempted monopolization, although anything is possible. Therefore if you are bullish on precious metals, it might be a good idea to weight your portfolio towards silver, more so than gold. For ideas on which silver stocks to invest in, as well as commentary on the general silver market, subscribe to the Silver Prices Newsletter at completely free of charge.


Pan American Silver: Still going Strong and Steady

Pan American Silver Corp is going strong, up over 65% since we first signalled a BUY on this silver stock in July.

PAAS Stock Chart

Pan American Silver Corp, (Symbol PAAS on NASDAQ and listed as PAA on the TSX), was founded it 1994 and it still follows its aim that it set then, to be the best investment vehicle for investors looking for exposure to silver prices.

Well so far PAAS has been doing a great job of tracking and even outperforming silver prices, as the chart shows below.

PAAS compared to Silver

Silver stocks, such as the ones documented here at should outperform the silver prices. If a silver stock is not doing better than the silver metal, then there is no point in owning the stock. You would be better off buying bullion or ETF's as they track the silver price exactly, without the many risks of mining.

However it is good to see that PAAS is doing a lot better than the silver metal and the stock price should move a lot higher once silver prices get going, which we believe is eminent.

Pan American Silver has stated that it aims to produce 25 million ounces of silver every year by 2009 and it is well on the way with mines in Mexico, Bolivia, and two mines in Peru as well as projects in Mexico, Argentina and the USA.

PAAS Bolivian Project Map

The project in Bolivia is obviously a cause for concern, with the geopolitical risks of the country and threat of possibly extremely high taxation or even nationalization. But as Pan American Silver has many other project in many other countries, this is not too much of a problem to the stock at the moment although it could be in the future.

For the moment though, Pan American Silver is doing quite well for the Portfolio, especially for one of the larger silver mining companies, and it should continue to do so it the future. Keep updated on its progress and well as ideas on other silver stocks and silver prices by subscribing to the Silver Prices Newsletter completely free of charge.

SILVER: Are you ready?

The scene is set for silver to move a lot higher over the coming months so you need to be in position now.

The United States has kept its interest rates on hold for now with some commentators anticipating rate reductions further down the line. If the rate were to rise any further then the housing market would be in even more trouble than it is already. So given a choice between house repossessions caused by higher rates or allowing the dollar to devalue a little more, what’s it going to be? Since 1971 the dollar had lost 97% of its value so historically there hasn’t been that much interest in preserving its spending power. So our guess is that it will be allowed to drift lower but at a controlled rate that will suit the Feds. The upside, if there is one, is that American goods and services will be cheaper and therefore more competitive when compared with the current wave of cheap imports that land on America’s doorstep every day.

So once the dollar starts to sink (some say that the ‘82’ level is the technical support level that it most not break) then will see some serious money flowing in to the precious metals sector. Gold is the obvious choice however silver is a small market place so it won’t take much of a spill over in to silver for silver to really move.

The chart for silver encourages us, noting that each time it is sold off it does not fall as far as it did the time before. There is an upward channel forming giving us prior notice of the next move north. All we need now is an ignition. Someone or an event that will kick start this run and from there it will move quickly so we must hang on to a position in silver one way or another.


We are still expecting to see silver hit the $20.0 mark this year so we are on the lookout for under valued silver mining assets to supplement what we already have. Endeavour Silver Corporation being the latest additional investment to our stable.

23 March 2007


Endeavour Silver Corporation: Up 10.83% in 3 weeks

Endeavour Silver Corporation has made terrific progress in the last 3 weeks rising from $3.97 to close at $4.40 yesterday.

We expect this stock to rise above its recent high of $5.00 very soon and go on to demonstrate just what a high quality silver stock that it really is.

The tripling of its silver resources at Guanacevi Mines Project, Durango, Mexico, has no doubt played a big part in the stocks recovery. As noted on the chart it was the Chinese wobble that give us the opportunity to pounce and make our first investment. In our opinion it is still cheap so we will continue to accumulate as our cash flow allows.

The old adage of buy the dips certainly applied here. When the gloom comes down it is important not to let your chin drop as most of the others have done and hit the sell button. This selling drove the price down very nicely for us to make the best of a short-term correction. If you sold during this period then not to worry it is still cheap and buying back in now could better than trying to get back in 6 months, just our opinion of course, and we hold the stock so we are bias towards it.


The chart shows the commencement of the recovery and you can see that the volume has increased gently over the last 3 days. Now that the US interest rates have been kept on hold we could see gold going on a little run and silver is sure to join in the fun.

You can locate Endeavour on the TSX: EDR, AMEX: EXK, DBFrankfurt: EJD

08 March 2007


Endeavour Silver Corp: Silver Resources Triple

Endeavour Silver Corporation has announced today the tripling of its silver resources at Guanacevi Mines Project, Durango, Mexico.

Micon International Limited have completed their audit of the silver reserves and resources at the Guanacevi Mines Project and Endeavour are now in receipt of a summary of the NI 43 101 compliant reserves and resources for Guanacevi. The full report will be filed on SEDAR in due course. The highlights however are as follows:

Proven and probable reserves at 9.93 million ounces of silver at year-end up from 3.48 million ounces of silver in March 2006.

Indicated resources are up from nil in March 2006 to 21.06 million ounces silver at year-end 2006.

Apart from the above and yet to be audited Endeavour also reports a silver inventory totalling 571,000 oz silver in stockpiles at year-end.

Bradford Cooke, Chairman and CEO, commented, "Reserves and resources at Guanacevi now total 41 million oz, well in excess of the 10 year mine life. The Santa Cruz vein system not only contains multiple large mineralized zones with robust silver grades, it continues to be open for resource expansion."

Well, isn’t that just a terrific start to the day, which should impact on the stock price as the news filters through.
As you know we made an investment in Endeavour on the 5th March 2007 when things were looking at little glum in the markets as the sell off has given the silver mining sector a good pounding along with all the precious metals. This sell off did not deter us as we used it as a buying opportunity and managed to get in at US$3.97 and yesterday it closed at US£4.34 for an 8.77% increase in just 3 trading days.

We have high hopes for this one but as always don’t go too mad on any one stock.
You can locate Endeavour on the TSX: EDR, AMEX: EXK, DBFrankfurt: EJD

08 March 2007


Endeavour Silver Corporation: Looking good.

Endeavour Silver Corporation is one of the smaller silver mining companies concentrating on the growth of its silver production, resources and reserves in Mexico. Although the market capitalisation is only $174 million this company has plans to become one of the top five silver producers in the world.

This is an ambitious mission to undertake but in our humble opinion it is doable. The biggest threat that we can see against this mission being fulfilled is that it could well be taken out by one of the majors before it gets there. The market is in a mood of consolidation as evidenced by the recent spate in takeover activity. It is sometimes easier to add to your reserves by purchasing other known reserves through the acquisition process, than it is to explore new ground.

The attraction for us as investors is that Endeavours properties contain a high grade of silver currently standing at 15 ounces plus per ton with the substantial exploration upside of the Guanacevi mines project at 30 million ounces.

From a geopolitical stand point Mexico is viewed as a politically stable environment in which to operate. It has a 500-year mining history, reasonable environmental policies, a good infrastructure and a government committed to the development of its natural resources reservoir.

All figures are in US$. The Market capitalisation is $174 million with 42 million shares outstanding and closed on Friday at $4.15, although the asking price was $4.13 in extended hours trading. The 52-week trading range is $1.78 to $6.08 on an average volume of 222,000 shares for the last 10 days so the liquidity is good.

Taking a look at the chart we can see the effect of the pull back suffered across the markets worldwide. This can be seen as a problem or an opportunity, to us it is an opportunity as we believe this a good entry point enabling us to get into position before silver makes a run at $20.00. The figures on the chart are all in Canadian dollars. If the market volatility continues then we may be able to make an investment at around $4.00, which we would regard as a steal.


Endeavour Silver Corporation trades on the AMEX as EXK, on Toronto as EDR and on Frankfurt as EJD.

05 March 2007



A quick update of our portfolio of silver stocks shows just how well these silver investments have performed to date.

We are very pleased with the progress however we have lost patience with CDE and have decided to sell it and we will replace it shortly with a new silver mining company.

Below is a list of what we have and a record of the progress that has been achieved to date.

HL $8.28 BUY
Bought for $5.27 has gained 57.12%

PAAS $31.03 BUY
Bought for $18.00 has gained 72.39%

SLW $10.89 WATCH
Bought for $9.41 has gained 15.73%

CDE $4.68 SELL
Bought for $4.85 has lost 3.51%. Our patience has come to an end. The geopolitical shadow hangs heavy on CDE, which has resulted in the market perception of this stock turning from exciting to dull. CDE may well come back and has recently made a great effort to regain lost ground. However we feel that this recent upward move could be short lived so we will go back to the sidelines and watch how it develops from here on in.

SSRI $36.05 BUY
Bought for $19.98 has gained 80.43%
The average gain for the above silver stocks is 44.39%. We try to invest in ‘quality’ silver stocks and expect them to rocket as and when silver takes a run at $20.00, which we believe, is imminent.

EPL $0.80 HOLD
Bought for $0.53 has gained 50.9%. This stock has a reputation as a project generator with the ability to develop and then spin off a project. Investing in EPL is a bet that their management can continue to surprise by way of innovation.

Our research continues but it is difficult to better the above list.

For now though we are content to hold and enjoy as steady progress is being made.
We are expecting silver to move to higher ground and do it very soon so hang on in there we also expect the above stocks to move dramatically higher along with silver.

25 February 2007


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23 February 2007