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« Dive in Silver Price a “Setup,” Says Sprott | Main | The Risk of an Unorderly Default »
Wednesday
Jun152011

Silver prices Update 15th June 2011

silver chart 15 June 2011.JPG



There are a number of mixed opinions out there at the moment which in our opinion represents a healthy state of affairs. When we are all 'over the top bullish' it gives us the jitters, same goes for when the situation becomes overly bearish. Right now the bears are flexing their muscles following a correction in silver prices and the predictions for much lower silver prices sally forth.

Taking a quick look at the chart for silver we can see that the correction appears to be over, however, we will wait and watch for now as the steam has been taken out of the technical indicators, which were at the top of their respective ranges, but, they can still go lower and chug along at the low levels for now. We expect more consolidation in the short term but there are experts in this field who suggest that a strong summer rally could be on the cards, notably James Turk, over on King World News as this snippet suggests:



The sharp rally that occurred today off of those support zones suggests to me that the correction is over.  In other words we are going to see silver back above $40 and gold above $1,550 within the next couple of weeks.  Everything is all set for new record high prices in both metals this summer, which is going to surprise a lot of people.

As individual investors we need to prepare for surprises if we are to take advantage of the next move in silver prices, whether we are leaning towards the bulls or the bears. Our own assessment of the situation is that the traditional summer doldrums in the precious metals sector will prevail until around mid August. This will allow enough time for the investment community to ascertain whether or not there will be a QE3 or not, this we expect will be determined by how the stock market performs. Should it continue to falter as it has done in recent weeks then helicopter Ben will hit the stimulus pedal as per usual. He may be tempted to not to add any further stimulus if the market appears to be managing without his help, but given his track record we doubt that he will be able to avoid the temptation of interfering where and when he thinks fit.

There also the small matter of the election race which has now started and although there is a long way to go, an incumbent president will be looking for an improvement in unemployment figures to help him get across the line in first place.

Either way it is too late for the dollar and it is now just a question of timing as to when both silver and gold make their move. We must stay vigilant and be prepared to use our 'opportunity cash' maybe a tad quicker than first thought. For now, we still intend to wait until mid August before committing major amounts of our capital to the silver bull, but when the time is right we will hit it hard, with purchases of the physical metal, the associated producers and a tranche of options plays.



Regarding www.skoptionstrading.com. The stats and the charts have been updated and are as follows:.


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sk chart 22 May 2011.JPG



The above progress chart shows our performance when profits are re-invested, however, to see exactly how it is going, please click this link.

So, the question is: Are you going to make the decision to join us today.

Stay on your toes and have a good one.

Got a comment then please add it to this article, all opinions are welcome and very much appreciated by both our readership and the team here.


To stay updated on our market commentary, which gold stocks we are buying and why, please subscribe to The Gold Prices Newsletter, completely FREE of charge. Simply click here and enter your email address. (Winners of the GoldDrivers Stock Picking Competition 2007)

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SK logo 26 May 2011.JPG




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Reader Comments (10)

yes, wait, because this is going to be over when we drop below 10 bucks.

June 15, 2011 | Unregistered CommenterDi

Thanks Di. Another quote for the archives.

Always humorous.

June 15, 2011 | Unregistered Commenterfallingman

James Turk was calling for $80 silver and $1800 gold by June. I'm as bullish on PMs as anyone, but following Turk as your bell cow is not a prudent decision. He's never seen a price at which he didn't think you should be a buyer.

Price corrections happen, and they happen for very good reasons. In a secular bull market, price corrections can make you rich. On the other hand following the irrationally bullish advice of people selling newsletters, can make you look foolish.

The higher the prices go, the more volatile the corrections. Keep cash handy, buy on weakness and let prices come to you. They always do (until the mania begins.)

Turk may turn out to be correct, but I wouldn't bet a lot of money on it. After all, even a broken clock is right twice a day. But unless you are buying gold in euros, the impending strength in the US dollar this summer is likely to present a formidable headwind to gold and silver prices -at least in the short term.

June 15, 2011 | Unregistered CommenterPuroman

Puroman,

Yeah, I get the point. Turk's a good guy...AND he will always be one of the people with the most aggressive targets in terms of price and time. I've learned to take what he says with a grain of salt. And yet, I don't fault him too much, because he's certainly been on the right side of the trend and I suspect he sees how inevitable the end game is and can't imagine how it can be deferred much longer. But, it probably can and will be.

He's not a newsletter writer by the way. He runs goldmoney, but the point is well taken. he has a vested interest in seeing the metals go higher and encouraging people to buy.

Agree with your thinking. I would just add that some buying in here is fine, especially if you don't have much...or any. I would say...just buy in stages. Some now and hope you get lower prices.

June 15, 2011 | Unregistered Commenterfallingman

fallingman,

Roger that - and thanks for the clarification on his vested interest!

I was aware of his investing/storage business but I mistakenly also thought he published a rag. I guess because KWN and others cite his bullish views so frequently, you think he's a writer/blogger too.

I agree with his long term view. But I manage people's money for a living, and I'm highly sensitive to "experts" firing off their high-conviction, short-term market calls with precious little fundamental or technical analysis to support them.

I own gold and silver too so I'd love it if he's proven right. But if I directed my clients' investments purely based on emotion and wishes - I'd have lost all my clients (AND their money) years ago. I guess when you've got nothing to lose being wrong, ANY publicity is good publicity so long as your name is out there.

June 15, 2011 | Unregistered CommenterPuroman

Team,

This might help a tad with clarification of who James is and what he does:

James Turk has specialised in international banking, finance and investments since graduating in 1969 from George Washington University with a B.A. degree in International Economics.

James Turk has written several essays and numerous articles on money and banking, much of which can be found on his Free Gold Money Report website.

He is the co-author of The Coming Collapse of the Dollar (Doubleday 2004), which has been updated for a paperback version entitled The Collapse of the Dollar.

James founded GoldMoney together with his son Geoff Turk in 2001.
this is a link to his site:

http://www.goldmoney.com/author/james-turk.html

He also produces a Goldmoney newsletter which might be of interest to you

June 15, 2011 | Unregistered CommenterSilver Prices

Silver Prices,

Thank you for the information.

I know of James' banking background and also that he is a very bright man. While I have not read his book, I have read various of his articles on money. I think he is absolutely correct about the USD... and certainly that fuels his long term bullish sentiment for the precious metals. I'm totally on board with him there!

However, his short term calls are another story altogether.
His market timing and wild price targets are notorious for their extremes and I honestly can't remember a time when he supported a short call with in-depth analysis. I'm not saying he hasn't done any, but I find it curious that you never hear any.

You can be 100% right about the long term picture yet wrong time and time again calling the short term. It's why the average market timer can lose his shirt trade after trade in the middle of a bull market.

So, if an "expert" insists on making short term directional and price target calls, then you'd expect them to offer up some analysis to support those calls. Otherwise, why should an intelligent investor listen to them?

James is definitely an expert in banking and money but, unfortunately, people find that boring. Gold on the other hand, gets people's attention and making wildly bullish calls keeps his name out there. But absent real technical analysis, I'm afraid he comes off more like a fortune teller than an expert and that, in my opinion, is a shame.

June 15, 2011 | Unregistered CommenterPuroman

Puroman,

Digging through my notes I found that on 02 January he made a prediction for $50.00 silver within six months, I cant find one for $80.00 silver, but I could easily of missed it.

In general we do get a number of emails from investors who are new to silver and they ask us questions about where to go in order to read widely, so we try and sprinkle this site a few others that we think are interesting.

The more we put the spot light on silver the better in our view.

June 15, 2011 | Unregistered CommenterSilver Prices

Interesting nobody mentions Ed Steer.He thinks JP Morgan etc will mount a big attack on gold in the next few weeks as there has not been a significant pullback. This ,in turn ,will impact silver, so Iam sitting tight at the moment. Would make a part purchase around $30 and above $40 dollars would confirm a breakout with still enough time to get back in

June 16, 2011 | Unregistered Commentersilver bug

Ed is a great guy and his daily missive is an absolutely invaluable resource. That said, he's guessing along with the rest of us...something he, himself, would acknowledge.

Yours is a sound plan. Personally, for what it's worth, I'm becoming less and less interested in near term events and gyrations. I'm aiming for the big score in the longer term, and who knows when things really get going?

Morgan is always a threat. Stipulated. But I'm just getting the feeling that, despite all the obvious reasons not to boldly step in right now...Morgan...weakening economy/financial meltdown threat..."end" of QE2...strengthening dollar...falling stock market...it's time to buy.

May be a stupid thing to do, but once the analysis is done, intuition has always served me better at decision time than trying to figure out how all the moves on the 3D chessboard will play out.

I'm about to take a bigger initial re-entry position on the stocks than I imagined I would even a week ago and I'll just ride out any turbulence and buy more lower if I get the chance. (Not as interested in gold itself here. As for silver, I'll wait with you.)

Just seems to me, on the mining stock front, that so many people are waiting. Too many maybe.

We'll see how it works out. As the song says...Fools rush in where wise men fear to tread.

June 16, 2011 | Unregistered Commenterfallingman

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