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Monday
Mar112019

Gold Fails At Critical Resistance Level 

 Preamble

Since the last all-time high of $1900/Oz made in 2011 Gold Bugs have taken it on the chin as gold fell from grace resulting in many investors leaving this space in search of greener pastures. In recent years gold has levelled out and is indeed shaping up for a comeback as it once again eyes the near-term resistance level of $1350/Oz.

For many investors breaching this level won’t be good enough to tempt them into parting with their cash, it will take something more substantial like a weekly close above $1450/Oz. And that is only the point that they start to think;

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Tuesday
Feb262019

Gold To Obliterate The Resistance Level Of $1350/Oz 

 

<p><span style="font-size: 140%;">It feels like a distance memory since gold traded at the heady heights of $1900/Oz, since then the bears have been in control and gold has been savaged along with the associated <strong><a title="http://www.skoptionstrading.com/updates/2011/8/23/425-gain-in-8-weeks-for-sk-optiontrader-subscribers.html?a_aid=4ff63c167fff1" href="http://www.skoptionstrading.com/updates/2011/8/23/425-gain-in-8-weeks-for-sk-optiontrader-subscribers.html?a_aid=4ff63c167fff1" target="_blank">mining stocks</a></strong>.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 140%;">However, since 2016 gold has been making somewhat of a comeback and is now trading close to $1350/Oz. This is a level that it has tried to pierce on 6 or more occasions and failed as each rally ran out of steam, they were head fakes disguised as a rally. This resistance level needs to be obliterated with some gusto and <strong><a title="http://www.gold-prices.biz/home/2009/5/28/randgold-resources-limited-take-profits.html" href="http://www.gold-prices.biz/home/2009/5/28/randgold-resources-limited-take-profits.html" target="_blank">gold</a></strong> needs to find the traction to take out the next resistance level which is $1400/Oz before there is more or less a clear run to $1800/Oz and then new all-time highs of $2000/Oz and beyond for gold.</span></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-size: 140%;">A quick look at the gold chart</span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-size: 140%;"><span class="full-image-block ssNonEditable"><img style="width: 550px;" src="/storage/Gold Chart 26 February 2019.jpg?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1551151973911" alt="" /></span><br /></span></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 140%;">The above chart shows the resistance $1350/Oz in red and also shows in blue squares the number of attempts it has made over the last 5 years to breakthrough this resistance and failed.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 140%;"><strong style="font-size: 150%;"><a title="https://seekingalpha.com/account/authorboard_overview" href="https://seekingalpha.com/account/authorboard_overview" target="_blank">read more.......</a></strong></span></p>
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Background

It feels like a distance memory since gold traded at the heady heights of $1900/Oz, since then the bears have been in control and gold has been savaged along with the associated mining stocks.

However, since 2016 gold has been making somewhat of a comeback and is now trading close to $1350/Oz. This is a level that it has tried to pierce on 6 or more occasions and failed as each rally ran out of steam, they were head fakes disguised as a rally. This resistance level needs to be obliterated with some gusto and gold needs to find the traction to take out the next resistance level which is $1400/Oz before there is more or less a clear run to $1800/Oz and then new all-time highs of $2000/Oz and beyond for gold.

A quick look at the gold chart


The above chart shows the

Click to read more ...

Thursday
Feb212019

The Beaten Down Gold Sector Starts To Punch Back

Preamble

We have long held the opinion that the fortunes of the precious metals sector is largely dependent on the action or lack of it by the Central Bankers. Of note is the Federal Reserve who have now taken their foot off the accelerator regarding rate hikes in the US. We have stated that we doubt that we will get any rate hikes this year and we might even get a rate cut as the Fed remains “data driven” and has adopted a dovish stance regarding monetary policy.

Central Bank actions regarding monetary policy

There are also other Central Bankers which we need to be aware of as their actions can contribute to the expansion or contraction of the money supply such as the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE), etc. On Tuesday the governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Haruhiko Kuroda, gave notice that the central bank was ready to ramp up stimulus if sharp rises in the yen damaged the Japanese economy and undermined his strategy of achieving a 2% inflation target. As we all know money knows no boundaries and will migrate across borders in the blink of an eye. Inflating the money supply tends to weaken a currency and the Yen did fall on this news from the BOJ. It is difficult to make a direct correlation between the Yen weakening and gold prices rising but gold did trade higher following this piece of news.

On the horizon the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi and the governor of the BOE, Mark Carney, are soon to leave their posts. The loss of familiar faces creates a certain amount of uncertainty as we do not know who will replace them and what sort of strategy they will adopt when managing monetary policy. If the replacements are of a dovish disposition, then we would expect gold and silver to be the beneficiaries.

Gold Surges To 11 Month Highs

As we can see from the chart below gold has reacted positively since the golden crossover so we would now like to see gold prices get above the $1370.00/Oz level and settle there. The technical indicators remain in the overbought zone suggesting a near term pullback, but they could also stay there for some time before unwinding. Gold has rallied well since Labour Day and is gaining a tad more air time which is positive for gold bugs.


 

Gold Miners Are finally on the move

The precious metals stocks are now flirting......................

Click to read more ...

Wednesday
Feb202019

Silver Prices are struggling to say above the $16.00/Oz level

As the chart below shows that it is a struggle to stay above sixteen bucks which it needs to do and consolidate those gains before moving to higher ground.

Take good care these are treacherous times.

 gold is doing

Click to read more ...

Thursday
Feb142019

The Gold Bugs Index The HUI To Rock As Gold Rallies

Preamble

The precious metal market has experienced great difficulty for the last 6 years or so as gold and silver prices were beaten down. However, they are now moving higher largely due to a stock market that is in a corrective mode and a Federal Reserve that is in dovish mode. Investors in the stock market are looking to rotate into new market sectors and the Fed’s rate hike cycle looks to have come to an end removing support from the US Dollar. As the dollar weakens gold prices improve as they have an inverse relationship.

Our expectation is that the precious metals stocks will become more profitable and therefore more attractive to the investment community and could even become the “Darlings” of market as the media begins to feature them more often and without the distaste that they have for them at the moment.

Click to read more ...

Monday
Feb112019

Gold Prices Taking A Breather Or Something Worse?

Background

I first traded gold back in 1980 and have been active in this sector of the market ever since then. However, as a Gold Bug at heart I am not a Perma-Bull and at different times I have been long or short in this space through via the normal buying and selling methods and also by utilizing the options market to generate profits.

Being a Perma-Bull or Perma-Anything makes no sense to me as the market goes up and comes down. It is all about being positioned on the right side of a market sector, being with it and not against it. If you have to be a bear at times so be it, it is better than losing your shirt.

Preamble on Gold and Silver

As we understand it in 2018 Central Banks bought 651 tonnes of gold and are showing a renewed interest in the precious metals sector, which if true, is very good news for the demand side of this commodity. We have also read a number of articles by some of the big banks who are predicting higher prices for gold going forward. If their research could be relied on and assuming that they didn’t want to see the price go higher in order to unload some of their holdings, then this would also be good news for gold and silver.

 

 

    

Overbought gold to correct in the near term, but long term will go higher

More.........

 

 

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Tuesday
Feb052019

SSR Mining Inc Continues To Mature 

 Preamble

A few years ago, the formally named Silver Standard changed their name to SSR Mining (NASDAQ: SSRM), to better reflect their involvement in both silver and gold mining activities. The previous name suggested that it was predominantly a silver producer, however since acquiring the Marigold gold mine in Nevada the newly named SSR Mining Inc is now largely a gold producer.

On 4th July 2017 we posted an article entitled; “Silver Standard Is Now In The Bargain Basement: Buy” and since then the stock has had a torrid time along with most of the precious metals mining operators but of late has showed considerable strength. Fast forward nineteen months and the picture has improved dramatically for SSRM as it could have been acquired for $9.24 back then and today the cost would be in the order of $13.88, registering a gain of 50.2%

At the time of acquisition gold was trading at around $1210/Oz and today it stands at $1313/Oz. However not all in this sector have been so fortunate as the Gold Bugs Index, the HUI clearly demonstrates. The HUI stood at 180 back in July 2017 and today it stands at 168 registering a loss of 6.7% over the same period that SSR Mining Inc made very good progress.

A Quick Look At The Chart Of SSR Mining

The chart below shows the acceleration of the stock price over the last six months and the steepness of the ascent suggests that it may have ran too far too fast. The technical indicators such as the RSI which stands at 74.78 is firmly in the oversold zone, likewise with the MACD and the STO both of which look set to rollover and head south.


Financials

In July 2017 we wrote:

Click to read more ...

Thursday
Jan312019

Gold And The mining Stocks Come Alive 

Preamble

After 6 torrid years in the precious metals sector of the market gold and the associated mining stocks have given us a glimmer of hope.

There are two main drivers behind this, the first is that the markets in general are retreating and investors are looking for alternative market sectors for their investment funds. The S&P500 hit the dizzy heights of 2900 before correcting to 2350 and then bounced to around 2681. Having had a ten-year run a correction is to be expected and we are of the opinion that there is more to come on the downside, with the precious metals sector being the beneficiary.

The second driver is

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Wednesday
Jan232019

Fresnillo’s 2018 silver output hit record high, to be lower this year


Shares in Mexico-focused precious metals miner Fresnillo (LON:FRES) took a hit Wednesday after the company said it expected a decline in silver output in 2019.

The company, which is the world's largest primary silver producer and Mexico's No.2 gold miner, posted record silver production, and strong gold output in 2018, despite it being a “challenging year” for the company.

Delivering production figures for the three months and full year ended in December, the miner said annual silver production was 61.8 million ounces, up 5.3% on 2017, thanks mainly to the first full year of operations at San Julián.

Fresnillo said it was taking action to address lower than expected ore grades at its Fresnillo and Saucito mines, which persisted in the final quarter of 2018.

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Friday
Jan182019

Is The Future For Silver Shiny Or Not?

Background

The first decade of the precious metals bull market was in hindsight a wonderful opportunity to generate profits by sticking with the trend. We were able to acquire both gold and silver at what now look like very cheap prices. The producers also gave us the opportunity to generate good profits with our funds invested for relatively short time periods. However, all good things come to an end and this bull market concluded in 2011 when gold peaked at $1900/oz.

Silver suffered the very same fate even though the number of applications for it increased with new technological advances. Silver prices peaked at $50.00/Oz and today silver trades at sub $16.00/Oz, registering a fall of $34.00/Oz or a loss of 68%. The ishares Silver Trust (SLV) mirrored the fall from a peak of

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